Keeping Market Volatility in Perspective
When markets are volatile, sticking to a long-term investing strategy can be a challenge. Though past performance is no guarantee of future results, it might help you keep the ups and downs in perspective to see how recent market action compares to previous market cycles.
Bears versus bulls
Corrections of 10% or more and bear markets of at least 20% are a regular occurrence. Since 1929, there have been 18 previous 20%-plus bear markets (not including 2011 market action). Losses on the S&P 500 in those markets ranged from almost 21% in 1948-49 to 83% during 1930-1932; the average loss for all 18 bears was 37%.*
However, since 1929, the average bull market has tended to last almost twice as long as the average bear, and has produced average gains of about 79%.* Individual bull market gains have ranged from 21.4% at the end of 2001 to the nearly 302% increase registered during the 1990s.* The worst annual loss--47%--occurred in 1931, but the all-time best annual return--a capital appreciation gain of just under 47%--happened just two years later in 1933.**
Points of reference
Last year's volatility rattled even seasoned investors. For example, during a single week in August, 2 of the Dow's 11 best days in history alternated with 2 of its 11 worst daily point losses ever.***
While by no means normal, the highs and lows are hardly unprecedented. Even though the 634-point drop on August 8 felt historic, it didn't begin to match the real record-holders. The single biggest daily decline occurred in September 2008, when the Dow fell 778 points. The biggest percentage drop was October 1987's "Black Monday," when the Dow fell almost 23%; that makes the Dow's 5.5% loss on August 8, 2011, seem relatively tame by comparison. And August 8 was followed by the Dow's 10th best day ever, with a gain of 430 points. While that upward movement may seem exceptional, the Dow's best day ever came during the dark days of October 2008, when a 936-point move up on October 13 represented a gain of more than 11% in a single day.***
Stocks versus bonds
The last decade has been a challenging one for stocks. Between 2001 and 2010, the S&P 500 had an average annual total return of just 1.4%, while the equivalent figure for Treasury bonds was 6.6%.**** For much of that time, interest rates were falling, helping bonds to outperform stocks. However, interest rates are now at record lows, and rising rates could change the relative performance of stocks and bonds.
While there may be ongoing volatility in the markets that needs to be monitored, it's important to keep things in perspective. Your ability to meet your goals could be affected if you change your overall long-term game plan with every new headline.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The Standard & Poor's 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.
DATA SOURCES: *Bull and bear market time frames, gains/losses: all calculations based on data from the Stock Trader's Almanac 2011 for the Standard & Poor's 500.
**1931 and 1933 annual stock returns: based on Ibbotson SBBI data for capital appreciation of S&P 500.
***Based on data from the Stock Trader's Almanac 2011.
**** 10-year rolling stock returns: based on Ibbotson SBBI data for annual total returns between 2001 and 2010 of S&P 500 and an index of U.S. Treasury bonds with an approximate 20-year maturity.