How Have Stocks Performed After a Recession?
Mark Twain said it best: "History doesn't repeat itself; at best it sometimes rhymes." Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and history can be an uncertain guide in terms of what might happen with stocks this time around as the economy begins to stagger out of a recession.
That said, it's fascinating to look at how various subsegments of the stock market have behaved relative to one another. Particularly interesting is the comparison between the performance of small-cap stocks and that of large caps after each of the last six recessions. In each case, small caps led the way out of those downturns. During the 12 months after the recession came to an end, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), small caps beat large caps every time.
The average difference over the six recovery periods was 14.5%. In some cases, the difference was dramatic; in others, small caps were barely ahead. Here are the percentages by which small caps beat the S&P 500*:
- December 1970-November 1971: 1.3%
- April 1975-March 1976: 23.2%
- August 1980-July 1981: 28.4%
- December 1982-November 1983: 14.4%
- April 1991-March 1992: 14.8%
- December 2002-November 2003: 5.2%
Will history rhyme this time? It's hard to say. Many economists feel the current recession ended sometime in summer 2009. Small-cap stocks have certainly done well since then, but some experts feel large caps are best equipped to navigate a credit crisis. However, until the NBER retroactively declares an official end to this recession, there's no way to know for sure. And don't forget that small caps historically have involved greater risk from market fluctuation, so a double-dip downturn could hit them hardest.
*Percentages calculated based on data from Ibbotson SBBI Market Results for Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation for small company stocks and the S&P 500 Composite Index.